How do you predict a satellite reentry?

As an object's orbit decays, its altitude drops on every pass. Cosmik reads live orbital elements (TLEs) from the public CelesTrak/NORAD catalogue and propagates each one with SGP4 to get its current altitude and 24-hour decay rate. Below about 260 km, drag is winning and reentry is a days-to-weeks story. This is a drag-threshold heuristic, not a precise window solution.

How accurate are reentry predictions?

Reentry timing is genuinely hard: atmospheric drag varies with solar activity, so even hours before reentry the window can span several orbits. Cosmik gives a coarse, honest window (days / days-to-weeks / weeks-to-months) — useful for knowing something is coming down, not for pinpointing the exact minute or place.

Will a reentering satellite hit the ground?

Almost always, no. The overwhelming majority of satellites burn up completely, sometimes as a bright, slow fireball. Only large or dense objects leave fragments that reach the surface, and the odds of debris reaching any given person are vanishingly small.

Satellite reentries — what's coming down right now

Q: Which satellites are about to reenter?

As of September 2026, Cosmik lists 35 active objects below 260 km — the altitude at which atmospheric drag starts winning. The lowest right now is STARLINK-5055 at about 109 km. This list refreshes automatically as fresh orbital data arrives.

35 active objects below 260 km — live altitude, decay trend and a rough reentry window.

Which satellites are about to reenter? Below is the live list of the lowest active objects Cosmik is tracking — everything currently under 260 km, where atmospheric drag starts winning and a reentry becomes a days-to-weeks story. Each object has its own page with live altitude and a decay trend. Want a heads-up before the next one comes down? Get free reentry alerts.

Ready to paste

“As of September 2026, 35 active objects in orbit are below 260 km and expected to reenter — the lowest, STARLINK-5055, is at ~109 km. Data: Cosmik (gocosmik.com), CC-BY 4.0”

gocosmik.com/reentry#candidates

Reentry candidates right now

Object	NORAD	Altitude	Trend	Reentry window
STARLINK-5055	54015	~109 km	falling fast	likely within days
NUSAT-40 (C SHOEMAKER)	56943	~126 km	falling fast	likely within days
ICEYE-X34	58294	~127 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-4387	53490	~132 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1770	46383	~133 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1598	46160	~137 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1234	45190	~138 km	falling fast	likely within days
DONGPO 02	53452	~144 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-3893	52579	~162 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-4451	53492	~172 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-33989	63929	~185 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-30182	57412	~190 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-5470	54776	~199 km	falling fast	likely within days
SMDC ONE 2.3	39474	~202 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-2336	47879	~204 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-1067	44771	~218 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-2681	48465	~221 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-2001	47596	~222 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-34006	63869	~222 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1893	46786	~226 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-1845	47135	~226 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-4045	53152	~227 km	descending	days to a few weeks
DUCHIFAT-1	40021	~228 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-4442	53480	~229 km	descending	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-1942	46794	~232 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
PACE-1	48909	~237 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-32955	63117	~241 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-1724	46375	~244 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-3083	49158	~244 km	falling fast	likely within days
TACSAT 6	39473	~246 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-4446	53505	~246 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-1068	44772	~248 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
SPARTAN	48964	~248 km	descending	weeks to a few months
EAGLEEYE	60508	~250 km	falling fast	likely within days
2023-072D	56746	~258 km	falling fast	likely within days

Sorted by altitude — the lowest object is closest to reentry. Data: live CelesTrak/NORAD orbital elements, propagated now with SGP4. Updated September 2026.

How reentry predictions work

Every satellite feels a faint atmospheric drag. As an object's altitude drops, each orbit gets a little lower and a little faster, until it dips deep enough into the atmosphere to burn up. Cosmik reads the same live orbital data behind the 3D map, propagates each object with SGP4 to get its current altitude and 24-hour decay rate, and lists everything below 260 km here. This is a drag-threshold heuristic, not a precise window — atmospheric density swings with solar activity, so real reentry timing can move by hours or days. We show a deliberately coarse window and say so on every page.

What happens when they come down

The overwhelming majority of these objects burn up completely, sometimes as a bright, slow fireball crossing the sky. Only large or dense pieces reach the ground, almost always over ocean or empty land. Read what happens when satellites fall for why most burn up and what (rarely) survives, or see the bigger picture on how much space debris is in orbit.

Get notified before the next reentry

Don't want to keep checking? Turn on reentry alerts and Cosmik will send a free push or email when an object is predicted to fall — with the current window and a link to follow it live. More on how it works: satellite reentry alerts.

Explore the live data

Watch any of these objects descend on the live satellite tracker, browse the full satellite database, see how many satellites are in orbit, or read what happens when satellites fall.