How do you predict a satellite reentry?

As an object's orbit decays, its altitude drops on every pass. Cosmik reads live orbital elements (TLEs) from the public CelesTrak/NORAD catalogue and propagates each one with SGP4 to get its current altitude and 24-hour decay rate. Below about 260 km, drag is winning and reentry is a days-to-weeks story. This is a drag-threshold heuristic, not a precise window solution.

How accurate are reentry predictions?

Reentry timing is genuinely hard: atmospheric drag varies with solar activity, so even hours before reentry the window can span several orbits. Cosmik gives a coarse, honest window (days / days-to-weeks / weeks-to-months) — useful for knowing something is coming down, not for pinpointing the exact minute or place.

Will a reentering satellite hit the ground?

Almost always, no. The overwhelming majority of satellites burn up completely, sometimes as a bright, slow fireball. Only large or dense objects leave fragments that reach the surface, and the odds of debris reaching any given person are vanishingly small.

Satellite reentries — what's coming down right now

Q: Which satellites are about to reenter?

As of November 2026, Cosmik lists 48 active objects below 260 km — the altitude at which atmospheric drag starts winning. The lowest right now is COSMOS 2572 at about 106 km. This list refreshes automatically as fresh orbital data arrives.

48 active objects below 260 km — live altitude, decay trend and a rough reentry window.

Which satellites are about to reenter? Below is the live list of the lowest active objects Cosmik is tracking — everything currently under 260 km, where atmospheric drag starts winning and a reentry becomes a days-to-weeks story. Each object has its own page with live altitude and a decay trend. Want a heads-up before the next one comes down? Get free reentry alerts.

Ready to paste

“As of November 2026, 48 active objects in orbit are below 260 km and expected to reenter — the lowest, COSMOS 2572, is at ~106 km. Data: Cosmik (gocosmik.com), CC-BY 4.0”

gocosmik.com/reentry#candidates

Reentry candidates right now

Object	NORAD	Altitude	Trend	Reentry window
COSMOS 2572	58435	~106 km	descending	likely within days
JILIN-1 GAOFEN 03D43	53448	~128 km	falling fast	likely within days
JILIN-1 GAOFEN 3H	46460	~146 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-2610	48376	~152 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-30924	58412	~156 km	falling fast	likely within days
BANDWAGON-2 OBJECT AE	62405	~165 km	descending	days to a few weeks
QIANFAN-227	69856	~165 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-30221	57418	~172 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1972	47627	~180 km	slowly decaying	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-3306	50163	~186 km	slowly decaying	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-4402	53509	~187 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1309	45414	~192 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-1641	46174	~193 km	slowly decaying	days to a few weeks
IPERDRONE.0	60520	~198 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-2131	47728	~201 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-2187	48562	~203 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
YAOGAN-35 02B	52908	~203 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-38086	69998	~204 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
UITMSAT-2	67686	~207 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-1704	47625	~212 km	descending	days to a few weeks
USA 485	62756	~213 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-30236	57300	~218 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-11358 [DTC]	62558	~220 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1036	44741	~222 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-36097	67091	~222 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1454	45671	~226 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-11691 [DTC]	64236	~230 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-30182	57412	~231 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-11452 [DTC]	62511	~234 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-1525	46066	~235 km	falling fast	likely within days
HYPSO-1	51053	~238 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-11387 [DTC]	62090	~245 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-1283	45389	~246 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-2236	48582	~246 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-11686 [DTC]	64233	~246 km	descending	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-32664	62204	~247 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-11621 [DTC]	63273	~247 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-11727 [DTC]	64123	~248 km	descending	days to a few weeks
NAPA-1	46320	~249 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-11607 [DTC]	63140	~249 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-11670 [DTC]	64237	~250 km	descending	days to a few weeks
2022-098C	53446	~251 km	descending	days to a few weeks
SWIFT	28485	~253 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-11680 [DTC]	63554	~253 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-3057	49139	~255 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-11580 [DTC]	63011	~256 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-11650 [DTC]	63312	~257 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1478	45755	~259 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months

Sorted by altitude — the lowest object is closest to reentry. Data: live CelesTrak/NORAD orbital elements, propagated now with SGP4. Updated November 2026.

How reentry predictions work

Every satellite feels a faint atmospheric drag. As an object's altitude drops, each orbit gets a little lower and a little faster, until it dips deep enough into the atmosphere to burn up. Cosmik reads the same live orbital data behind the 3D map, propagates each object with SGP4 to get its current altitude and 24-hour decay rate, and lists everything below 260 km here. This is a drag-threshold heuristic, not a precise window — atmospheric density swings with solar activity, so real reentry timing can move by hours or days. We show a deliberately coarse window and say so on every page.

What happens when they come down

The overwhelming majority of these objects burn up completely, sometimes as a bright, slow fireball crossing the sky. Only large or dense pieces reach the ground, almost always over ocean or empty land. Read what happens when satellites fall for why most burn up and what (rarely) survives, or see the bigger picture on how much space debris is in orbit.

Get notified before the next reentry

Don't want to keep checking? Turn on reentry alerts and Cosmik will send a free push or email when an object is predicted to fall — with the current window and a link to follow it live. More on how it works: satellite reentry alerts.

Explore the live data

Watch any of these objects descend on the live satellite tracker, browse the full satellite database, see how many satellites are in orbit, or read what happens when satellites fall.